Wednesday, 5 July 2023

How ChatGPT may still be way far from 'hurting' Google






Microsoft-backed AI platform ChatGPT may be losing some of its magic. ChatGPT app downloads are slowing down. According to a note from Bank of America Securities' (BofA) analyst Justin Post, OpenAI's ChatGPT is not on pace to challenge Google’s grip as the search engine leader. He claims that the app downloads for ChatGPT and Microsoft Bing have slowed in recent weeks. He cites data from research firm Sensor Tower. OpenAI launched ChatGPT in December 2022, the generative AI-based chatbot became an overnight success.

According to the note, ChatGPT downloads on iPhones in the US were down 38% month over month in June. Bing app downloads, which includes a ChatGPT-based chatbot in the US, were also down 38% in June.
Google’s search engine market share is slightly up year over year at over 92%, according to the note, citing SimilarWeb data. Microsoft’s Bing, which uses OpenAI’s ChatGPT technology, was down 40 basis points on an annual basis to about 2.8% of the market.

Good and bad for Google in ChatGPT's 'fall'

The note also has caveat for Google and Microsoft. It says that the fall in popularity of ChatGPT and similar large language models, or LLMs, also highlights the investment risk for companies such as Google and Microsoft which have funneled billions of dollars into the idea that recent AI advances could create a next-generation search engine to displace the current platforms. Both the companies, as well as other tech giants such as Nvidia, are also investing hundreds of millions in AI startups.

What the falling popularity of ChatGPT show

The note adds that the fall in adoption of ChatGPT could indicate that the technology may not seriously threaten Google’s dominance in search. This also means that companies may have to find other applications for LLMs, such as in new advertiser tools.

“As for Google’s stock, LLM concerns for Google search have seemingly shifted from market share risk to monetization risk, but with search share seemingly healthy, Google may have less urgency to integrate LLM (chat) results into commercial queries,” Post wrote in the note.

Besides the app or Bing search engine, ChatGPT users can also access the chatbot through its website. Bank of America analysts estimate visits to ChatGPT were down about 11% on a monthly basis to just over 51 million visitors per week, or only about 2% of Google’s estimated web traffic.

Analytics firm Similarweb too reported a fall in monthly traffic to its website and decline in unique visitors for the first time ever in June on the ChatGPT website. The worldwide desktop and mobile traffic to the ChatGPT website decreased by 9.7% in June from May, while unique visitors to ChatGPT's website dropped 5.7%. The amount of time visitors spent on the website was also down 8.5%, Similarweb data shows.
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